BoykoWealth.com — Automated Daily Report on World Macroeconomic News for April 21, 2025
A comprehensive summary of the news, covering GDP, inflation, unemployment, consumer confidence, equity markets, fixed income and interest rates, commodities, currencies, economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and new technology news.
GDP: The U.S. economy expanded at a healthy 2.4% quarter-over-quarter (q/q) seasonally adjusted annual rate (saar) during the fourth quarter, bringing real economic growth to 2.8% year-over-year (y/y) in 2024 [1]. Consumer spending continued to power the economy forward, growing at an exceptional 4.0%, while government spending moderated [1]. Business fixed investment turned negative due to declines in equipment and intellectual property spending, while residential investment rose after lagging for two quarters [1].
Inflation: The March Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in softer than expected, providing evidence that inflationary pressures were at bay ahead of recent tariff announcements [1]. Headline CPI fell 0.1% month-over-month (m/m) and rose 2.4% y/y as gasoline prices tanked, while core inflation delivered its slowest increase in four years [1]. Core goods prices fell 0.1% m/m as used vehicle and medical care commodity prices fell [1]. Shelter inflation eased to 0.2% due to weakness in lodging, but primary rent and owners’ equivalent rent were firmer [1].
Unemployment: The March Jobs report showed a labor market that remained resilient through the first quarter of 2025 [1]. Nonfarm payrolls rose by a stronger-than-expected 228,000, boosted by favorable weather effects [1]. However, revisions put this report more in line with expectations [1]. Service sectors continued to drive job growth while hiring in goods-producing sectors slowed [1]. Government employment rose but was weighed down by a decline in federal payrolls [1]. Meanwhile, unemployment rose to 4.2% while wages rose 0.3% m/m and 3.8% y/y [1].
Consumer Confidence: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April is due to unveil insights on the impact of reciprocal tariff threats on businesses [2]. The final reading of the index will provide a clearer picture of consumer confidence amid ongoing trade uncertainties[2].
Equity Markets: U.S. stocks ended mixed on Thursday in a choppy trading session to finish a holiday-shortened week lower as tariff worries continued to dent investors’ sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) slid 2.48% or 971.82 points, to end at 38,170.41 points [3]. The S&P 500 fell 2.36% or 124.50 points to close at 5,158.20 points [3]. Consumer staples and real estate stocks were the biggest gainers, while tech stocks were among the worst performers. The tech-heavy Nasdaq declined 2.55% or 415.55 points to finish at 15,870.90 points [3]. The fear-gauge CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) was down 29.65.
Corporate Actions and Earnings: The first-quarter earnings season is well underway with 13.1% of market cap reporting [1]. Currently, consensus is projecting pro forma EPS of $60.39 [1]. If realized, this estimate would represent y/y growth of 7.0% and q/q growth of -8.2% [1]. So far, 70% of companies have beaten estimates, and earnings have come in 6.3% above consensus [1]. Technology is once again contributing the majority of EPS growth, followed by health care on weak comparisons [1]. Energy and materials are still struggling through weak oil prices and muted demand from China [1].
Trending Industry Update: Investors will closely watch global earnings reports from major companies such as Alphabet, Tesla, Boeing, Intel, IBM, Merck, and P&G in the U.S., while SAP, BNP Paribas, AON, and Sanofi results are awaited in Europe [2]. On the economic front, flash PMI readings for the U.S., the Euro Area, Japan, India, and Australia will unveil the initial impact of tariff threats [2].
United States: The U.S. economic calendar will be relatively light this week [2]. March’s durable goods orders are expected to have grown sharply for a third month, while existing home sales are expected to have contracted [2]. Additionally, the flash S&P Global PMI survey for April is due to unveil insights on the impact of reciprocal tariff threats on businesses [2]. Additional indicators include the Chicago Fed National Activity Index [2].
Europe: The key focus in Europe next week will be the flash PMI data for April, offering an early read on how business activity and sentiment are responding to recent trade developments [2]. Forecasts suggest manufacturing activity will remain in contraction in the Euro Area, Germany, France, and the UK [2]. In services, a slowdown is expected in the Euro Area, Germany, and the UK, while France may see a deeper contraction[2]. Beyond PMIs, UK retail sales data will be closely watched [2]. Germany’s Ifo business climate index, due Thursday, is forecast to decline to a three-month low [2]. Similarly, France’s business and consumer confidence indicators are expected to weaken [2].
Asia: The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) is set to hold loan prime rates in China [2]. Investors will also monitor potential developments in US tariff policy, including potential retaliation to Asian protectionism and signals of trade deals by President Trump [2].
Fixed Income and Interest Rates: Treasury yields have been volatile amid ongoing trade uncertainties [4]. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was last seen at 3.1%, reflecting investor caution [4].
Commodities: Oil prices have been under pressure due to weak demand from China [1]. Gold prices have remained relatively stable, reflecting investor uncertainty [1].
Energy: Energy stocks have struggled through weak oil prices [1]. The sector continues to face challenges from muted demand and geopolitical tensions[1].
Metals: Metal prices have been impacted by trade uncertainties and weak demand from major economies[1].
Currencies: The U.S. dollar has shown strength amid global trade uncertainties[1]. Currency markets remain volatile as investors react to tariff announcements and geopolitical developments[1].
Economic Indicators: Durable goods orders and existing home sales will be key indicators to watch in the U.S. this week[2]. Flash PMI readings will provide insights into business activity across major economies[2].
Geopolitical Developments: President Trump’s tariff policies continue to drive volatility across all asset classes [2]. Investors are closely watching for potential retaliation and trade deals [2].
New Technology News: Major tech companies such as Alphabet and Tesla are set to report earnings this week [2]. The technology sector remains a key driver of market performance [1].
This concludes the BoykoWealth.com Automated Daily Report on World Macroeconomic News for April 21, 2025. Stay tuned for more updates and insights on global economic trends.
References
[1] NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) Historical Data – Yahoo Finance
[2] NASDAQ Composite Index (NASDAQCOM) | FRED – St. Louis Fed
[3] How major US stock indexes fared Monday, 4/21/2025 – WHEC.com – News10NBC