BoykoWealth.com — Automated Daily Report on World Macroeconomic News for April 29, 2025
A comprehensive summary of the news, covering GDP, inflation, unemployment, consumer confidence, equity markets, fixed income and interest rates, commodities, currencies, economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and new technology news.
GDP: The advance estimate for US GDP growth in Q1 2025 is expected to show annualized growth of just 0.4%, the slowest pace since Q2 2022 and a sharp deceleration from 2.4% in Q4 2024. This slowdown is largely attributed to weaker consumer spending and a surge in imports ahead of new tariffs. In Europe, flash estimates are expected to show the Eurozone economy grew by 0.2% on quarter in Q1 2025, matching Q4 2024. Country-level breakdowns suggest the German economy grew 0.2%, rebounding from a 0.2% fall. A recovery is also expected in France (0.2% after a 0.1% fall). In Italy, GDP growth probably accelerated to 0.2% from 0.1% and in Spain the economy is seen growing 0.7% (vs 0.8%).
Inflation: The PCE inflation report is on the radar, with the Fed’s preferred core measure expected to ease to a four-month low of 0.1% in March from 0.4% previously. In the shorter term, the new conditional inflation forecast for Asia is slightly higher than December: 0.3% for Q2 2025, 0.4% for 2025 overall, and 0.8% for 2026 and 2027, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
Unemployment: The US economy is projected to have added 130K jobs in April, down from 228K in March. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.2%, while wage growth is seen at 0.3% month-over-month. Other key data releases include the JOLTS job openings, ADP employment, Challenger job cuts, and final S&P Global Manufacturing PMI.
Consumer Confidence: The Conference Board Consumer Sentiment report is expected to provide insights into consumer confidence levels, which have been impacted by recent economic uncertainties.
Equity Markets: Wall Street closed mixed on Monday after a choppy session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 0.75% or 300.03 points to close at 40,527.62. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite finished at 17,461.32, gaining 0.55% due to strong performance of technology bigwigs. The S&P 500 was up 0.58% to finish at 5,560.83. Nine out of 11 broad sectors of the broad-market index ended in positive territory and two in negative zone. The Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) and the Real Estate Select Sector SPDR (XLRE) and the Utilities Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLU) rose 0.7%, 0.6% and 0.6%, respectively. On the other hand, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) fell 0.3%.
Corporate Actions and Earnings: As of April 25, 179 companies of the S&P 500 index have reported their quarterly financial numbers. Total earnings for these 179 index members are up 18% from the same period last year on 4.2% revenue gains. This week will be crucial for this reporting cycle as four members of the “magnificent 7” group will declare their results. Booking Holdings will release its first quarter 2025 financial results on April 29.
Trending Industry Update: The ongoing US-China trade dispute continues to be a focal point for investors, with potential de-escalation being closely monitored. The global earnings season is also taking center stage, with major companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta set to release quarterly results.
United States: President Trump has signed an executive order requiring a nationwide list of sanctuary cities and states. The US Treasury Department will release its Q2 quarterly refinancing plans.
Europe: Russian military moves have Europe on edge. A blackout has brought Spain and Portugal to a standstill. Flash estimates for Eurozone GDP and inflation figures are expected to be analyzed by market participants.
Asia: In China, all eyes will be on April PMI readings. Asia-Pacific markets are mixed as investors weigh China’s stimulus measures and U.S. trade talks.
Fixed Income and Interest Rates: The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The SNB policy rate remains at 0.25% over the entire forecast horizon.
Commodities: The commodities market is witnessing extreme volatility due to the imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration. The baseline tariff of 10% was imposed on all imports on April 5, with rates going up to as high as 145% for some countries.
Energy: The Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) rose 0.7%. Exxon Mobil and Chevron are set to release their quarterly earnings.
Metals: The metals market is closely watching the impact of tariffs and trade negotiations.
Currencies: The US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing bearish momentum, with potential bearish reversal off the pivot level of 100.27. EUR/USD is also showing bearish potential, with price potentially making a bearish continuation toward the 1st support.
Economic Indicators: Key economic indicators to watch include the ISM Manufacturing PMI, PCE inflation data, and the jobs report.
Geopolitical Developments: The Trump administration’s tariffs have led to extreme volatility in the stock markets. Negotiations between the United States and several other countries, including China, are ongoing.
New Technology News: The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite finished at 17,461.32, gaining 0.55% due to strong performance of technology bigwigs. Major tech companies such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are set to release quarterly results.
This report provides a comprehensive overview of the latest macroeconomic news and developments, offering valuable insights into the current state of the global economy.