April 30, 2025 – Boyko Wealth

Boyko Research

BoykoWealth.com – Automated Daily Report on World Macroeconomic News for April 30, 2025

A comprehensive summary of the news, covering GDP, inflation, unemployment, consumer confidence, equity markets, fixed income and interest rates, commodities, currencies, economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and new technology news.

April 30, 2025, saw significant volatility in global markets, with macroeconomic news highlighting concerns over slowing growth, persistent inflationary risks, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Below is a detailed breakdown of the day’s developments across key economic indicators and market segments.

GDP

The U.S. economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, marking the first decline since early 20224. This contraction was sharper than anticipated, with economists having expected a modest 0.4% growth. The slowdown was largely attributed to a surge in imports as businesses stockpiled goods to get ahead of new tariffs, which subtracted as much as 1.9 percentage points from GDP. The data did not yet reflect the full impact of President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, which were introduced in early April but partially rolled back a week later4. The previous quarter (Q4 2024) had seen a solid 2.4% annualized growth, revised up slightly from earlier estimates, mainly due to lower imports and stronger government spending4.

Inflation

Inflation in the United States continued to cool, with the annual rate easing to 2.6% in March 2025, down from 2.8% in February, marking the lowest level since October of the previous year5. The deceleration was driven by declining energy prices, although core inflation (excluding food and energy) remained at 3.0%. Monthly CPI growth was just 0.1%, the smallest increase in eight months. However, inflation expectations remain elevated, with year-ahead expectations jumping to 6.5%, the highest since 1981, due to trade policy announcements and tariff concerns7. Long-run inflation expectations also edged up to 4.4%7.

Unemployment

The U.S. unemployment rate rose to 4.2% in March 2025, the highest level since November and slightly above consensus expectations6. The number of unemployed individuals increased by 31,000 to 7.08 million, while employment grew by 201,000 to 163.51 million. The labor force participation rate edged up to 62.5%. The broader U-6 unemployment rate, which includes discouraged and part-time workers, decreased slightly to 7.9%6. Early April data from ADP suggested that private-sector hiring was weaker than expected, raising concerns about the labor market’s resilience3.

Consumer Confidence

Consumer sentiment in the U.S. was revised higher to 52.2 in April 2025 from a preliminary 50.8, but this still represented a decline from 57 in March and the lowest reading since July 20227. The expectations gauge fell to 47.3, also a multi-year low. Consumers cited risks from trade policy uncertainty and the potential for renewed inflation. Year-ahead inflation expectations climbed sharply, reflecting heightened anxiety about the economic outlook7.

Equity Markets

U.S. equities ended April with a late-session rally, overcoming steep early losses triggered by the weak GDP report. The S&P 500 rose 0.1% to 5,569.06, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3% (up 141.74 points to 40,669.36), and the Nasdaq slipped 0.1% to 17,446.342 3 8. The S&P 500 extended its winning streak to seven days but still closed the month down 0.8%, its third consecutive monthly decline3. The Dow was down 3.2% for April. Volatility was driven by concerns over trade policy and stagflation risks, but hopes for potential tariff rollbacks and strong earnings from select companies provided support2 3.

Corporate Actions and Earnings

Earnings season produced mixed results. Seagate Technology surged 11.6% after reporting strong results, while Super Micro Computer fell 11.5% following a warning about delayed customer purchases and a reduced sales forecast3. Starbucks dropped 5.7% after missing revenue and profit expectations, despite posting its first quarterly sales increase in over a year3. Energy sector stocks were among the worst performers, with Halliburton losing nearly 22% in April as crude prices fell on fears that tariffs would dampen global demand3.

The technology sector saw divergent trends. Data storage companies like Seagate outperformed, while AI and server hardware stocks such as Super Micro Computer faced headwinds due to concerns over high valuations and delayed customer spending3. The energy sector lagged significantly, reflecting commodity price weakness and broader economic uncertainty.

United States

The U.S. economy is at a crossroads, with the combination of contracting GDP, rising unemployment, and persistent inflationary expectations fueling fears of stagflation3 4 6 7. Trade policy uncertainty remains a dominant theme, with businesses and consumers wary of further disruptions from tariffs3 7.

Europe

European equity markets posted gains, buoyed by hopes that the U.S. Federal Reserve might soon cut interest rates in response to slowing U.S. growth and easing inflation3. The European Central Bank continues to monitor inflation trends closely, with policymakers signaling caution amid global volatility.

Asia

Asian markets finished mixed, reflecting uncertainty over U.S. trade policy and its impact on global supply chains3. Investors remain cautious as the region is particularly sensitive to shifts in U.S. demand and tariff policy.

Fixed Income and Interest Rates

U.S. Treasury yields fell as investors increased bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts later in 2025. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.15% from 4.19% the previous day3. Lower yields reflect both expectations of monetary easing and concerns over economic growth. Market consensus now anticipates at least four Fed rate cuts by year-end, though the first cut is unlikely at the next meeting3.

Commodities

Energy prices declined, with crude oil under pressure amid fears that tariffs and slowing economic growth will curb global demand3. The energy sector was the worst performer in the S&P 500 for April, with oil services companies hit particularly hard. Metals prices were also volatile, reflecting uncertainty over industrial demand and currency movements.

Currencies

The U.S. dollar experienced swings in response to shifting expectations for Fed policy and trade developments. Currency markets remain sensitive to both economic data and geopolitical headlines, with the dollar’s safe-haven status occasionally challenged by global uncertainty3.

Economic Indicators

Key indicators released Wednesday pointed to a weakening U.S. economy: GDP contracted, inflation slowed but expectations rose, and job market data disappointed. Consumer sentiment remains deeply negative, and business investment appears to be softening3 4 5 6 7.

Geopolitical Developments

Trade tensions between the U.S. and major partners, especially China, continue to dominate the geopolitical landscape. President Trump’s tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding their implementation have rattled markets and contributed to the recent economic slowdown3 4 7. In Canada, Mark Carney won the national election in a dramatic turnaround, potentially signaling shifts in North American trade and fiscal policy1.

New Technology News

The technology sector is navigating a challenging environment. While some hardware and storage companies are outperforming, AI-related stocks are under pressure due to concerns about overvaluation and delayed enterprise spending3. Companies are reassessing capital expenditures in light of economic uncertainty and shifting customer demand.

In summary, April 30, 2025, was marked by heightened volatility and uncertainty across global markets. The U.S. faces the risk of stagflation as growth slows and inflation expectations remain elevated. Equity markets are being whipsawed by economic data and trade policy developments, while fixed income investors anticipate Fed rate cuts. The energy sector is under pressure, and consumer confidence is at multi-year lows. Geopolitical and technological shifts continue to shape the macroeconomic landscape, with significant implications for investors and policymakers.

Citations:

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Boyko Research

GDP

Inflation

Unemployment

Consumer Confidence

Equity Markets

Corporate Actions and Earnings

United States

Europe

Asia

Fixed Income and Interest Rates

Commodities

Currencies

Economic Indicators

Geopolitical Developments

New Technology News

Citations:

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COMPANY

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Boyko Research

GDP

Inflation

Unemployment

Consumer Confidence

Equity Markets

Corporate Actions and Earnings

Trending Industry Update

United States

Europe

Asia

Fixed Income and Interest Rates

Commodities

Currencies

Economic Indicators

Geopolitical Developments

New Technology News

Citations:

Your Investment, Our Tools. Clear, Precise, Informed.

Careers

Mission

COMPANY

Automated Reports

Terminal

PRODUCTS

LinkedIn

braydenboyko@boykowealth.com

CONTACT